Japan Tokai Earthquake Predicted July 2012
by Britton LaRoche · 01/08/2009 (2:12 pm) · 804 comments
Update Jan 2012: Quake Database Built and Tested! Results are Here:The next Tokai Quake in Japan will most likely take place on July 08 2012. The prediction was made on March 30th 2011, and refined in January 2012. The prediction is based on equal correlation for both lunar and solar eclipses of the same saros series and the related extreme tidal pressure on subducted tectonic plates. We do have a solar eclipse passing over Japan on May 20 2012. However it is the lunar eclipse on June 4th 2012 and its saros series 140 that is predicted to trigger the earthquake.
NASA Solar Eclipse Images May 2012
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/5MCSEmap/2001-2100/2012-05-20.gifhttp://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/japan2012Quake500a-1.jpg
Below are the results of the database query. We looked at earthquakes that are within 90 days of a 140 saros series eclipse. We found the following historic earthquakes, looked at the quake cycle and calculated the prediction based on the number of days preceding or following the historic eclipse to predict the next earthquake.
Japan Tokai Quake Predictions
http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/JapanJuly2012.jpg
The tokai earthquake occurs roughly every 150 years, the last one was on December 24th in 1854, Japan suffered an 8.3 quake at latitude 33.20 longitude 135.60. This quake occurred 34 days after the longest hybrid solar eclipse in recent history for saros 140. This same saros (140) will produce a lunar eclipse on June 04 2012. Based on the previous saros and earthquake correlation we estimate that 34 Days after the June 04 saros 140 lunar eclipse, it may be possible to see another 8.3 on or about July 8th of this year.
Additional concerns are that on July 1 2012, the moon will reach perigee (its closest approach in orbit to the earth) at 362,361 km from earth. The full moon Syzygy follows two days later on July 3rd 2012. This means that during that time the higher than normal tidal forces will apply pressure on the subducted plates deep beneath the sea off Japan's shore.
The conditions may be right for a really big quake in Japan at that time. We see 3 possible dates predicted for the tokai quake in 2012, late April, early June and July. Based on the last 3 years of study and observation we believe that the repeated tidal pressures have a cumulative effect, and make July the most likely date for the earthquake.
We used the data in this video youtu.be/O9IAwvr1p9s?t=34m30s and applied the stress transfer algorithm. Here we see data from the USGS and Google Earth to plot all the quakes greater than magnitude 4.5 from March through August 2011 for the streess transfer that occured with the great magnitude 9.0 Tohoku Quake. We can clearly see where the stress has been transferred to. This confirms the location of the prediction.
http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/StressTransfer.jpg
Whats the likelihood of an 8.3 magnitude quake? Based on previous the previous track record in this blog it is about a 20% chance. However we firmly believe we have an 80% chance of a 6.0 or greater on or about July 8th in the region. The observation that tidal forces may trigger earth quakes in locations that have tectonic plates deep beneath the surface of the ocean, has been investigated in many scientific papers. We believe we have significant data gathered and reported in this blog to support the theory, the following prediction is one such example.
Japan Tohoku Quake 2011: Predicted 1 Month in Advance
Page 20 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction
Click Link above, then scroll way down to read posts
The March 2011 Japanese 9.0 magnitude earthquake was predicted right here in this blog on February 10th 2011 by a database query against lunar saros orbital data from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS (US Geological Survey) and NGDC (National Geophysical Data Center) in an Oracle database. This query predicted the Sendai quake (published in this blog) one full month in advance.
Since 2009 we've been refining an idea of predicting earthquakes based on the lunar gravitational pull based on the lunar Saros cycle. The section below was my first attempt at making a prediction based on the 2009 Solar eclipse. We refined the method to produce a database of lunar eclipse data gathered from NASA and earthquake data gathered from the USGS and NGDC. I predicted the Japan earthquake on February 10th 2011 you can see the prediction at the bottom on page 19. Page 19 - March 2011 Japan Quake Prediction Made Feb 10th 2011 (bottom of page)
http://i989.photobucket.com/albums/af15/zencoder/Quakes/JapanMarch2011-1.jpg
